49 thoughts on “Dream Virtually Fools The Web

  1. if i flip 100 heads in a row and people accuse me of cheating isnt my only real defence in that case to say look at the larger sample?

  2. 3:00 The same argument applies. if you only select the lucky data you will look lucky. OBVIOUSLY. However, if you broaden the sample size then you supposedly have more accurate data. This argument is completely invalid.

  3. Dream's own (anonymous) expert concluded that the collective chance for any Minecraft speedrunner getting his luck even one time in a year is 1 in 100 million.

    Dream's own expert concluded he cheated.

  4. >Cheats turned off
    >Do 5 runs
    >Cheats turned on
    >Cheat run
    >Cheats turned off
    >Do 5 more runs

    Look guys there's no way I cheated it.

  5. Lol 3:05 this is trash logic hahaha it's not that complicated, if I flipped a coin it's a 50:50, but if I make the sample size of 1000 and only take the flips where I have heads (dreams lucky runs) and say the sample size was 500, he would look like hes the luckiest person in the world. But since his sample size is misrepresented…..

  6. 2:40 Actually, Destiny inadvertently brings up a strong argument in Dream's favor: If we're running odds on getting a million head flips in a row, out of a million head flips, then you get one number, BUT that's not the proper setting for what happened, because it was not a mere random sampling of Dream's speedruns, but rather a biased sampling that was not accounted for in the initial paper. The true scenario is like this: Imagine you notice someone gets a hundred heads in a row in coinflips and you say "Wait, hang on, the odds of that are 0.5^100, this is a biased coin!" The reason this thinking is wrong is that, potentially, the coin flipper may have already flipped the coin a billion other times. The odds you need to calculate are then: "given a billion coinflips, what are the odds that a hundred in a row are heads at any point in the run?" The paper against Dream didn't correct for this (although they corrected for other micro-biases), so their calculations are likely off by many orders of magnitude.

  7. Astrophysicist’s really looking for this kind of work? I need some smart person to write up a paper that says my new chinese grain silo is safe to build next to a church. Got $$$ Dm me

  8. I have no dog in this fight, I'm not a dream fanboy or really a minecraft fanboy, but pretty much the only reason I'm still dubious about Dream cheating is I don't see the why of it.

    1.) He is a known speed runner and most of his runs have zero suspicions about their validity – so either he's a really good cheater or he has been completely honest before and after this set of live streams.
    2.) My understanding is that despite the absurd luck, these were not world record runs.
    3.) I know that sometimes computers behave differently than we are absolutely certain they should. This is doubly true if the program is relying on a random number generator. So what the devs calculate to be a one in seven trillion chance, it's possible the true odds are one in seven thousand. Maybe a dozen people have had this same luck, but they aren't streamers or youtubers so nobody knows about it. It's possible.

    So I'd like to see the why. Why would he cheat? It doesn't make sense to me.

  9. How to be proven good:
    1 make a very long esay comment, opinion, feeling ect ect,
    2 then talk about your defense for about 1 minute and continue on with the nonesses stuff again
    3: repeat step 1 and continue with step 1 but only do the 2nd one when you get them bored out of their mind

  10. 7:57 I was wondering about the author at the start of dream's defense, you give us qualifications but not a name to substantiate said qualifications…. gtfo.

  11. The odds are against Dream no matter who's right here; I know he's innocent because of the type of person he is. How does he benefit from cheating and lying about this anyway? He's successful because of his videos like his Manhunt series, not as much because of his speedrunning.

  12. The only thing I have to say about the sample size being flawed is that it can go both ways. If you flip a coin and got alot of heads in a row in a series of coin flips that you aren't cheating in and only pulled out the lucky streak of heads and use that in your analysis that will also skew the results.

    So pulling out only the lucky streams is always going to be biased against Dream.

    The argument goes both ways

  13. 2:30 I think what he means is testing each coin flip's chances, where time doesn't matter, technically. Which basically means, for the same coin the greater the sample the greater the confidence on what the actual coin flip probabilities are. Obviously if you only test the million heads lucky range, you can be statistically biased, since you can't possibly have the confidence to rule out the coin has 50/50 chances, if your test shows 100% chance of heads for exactly the range you try to prove it for, since the range itself is unrepresentative. So 1 billion flips before and after, would be good, if we knew it was the exact same experiment.

    It'd be really funny if Dream didn't cheat and he was in fact that lucky, but that'd be virtually impossible to prove.

  14. Dream 100% cheated and the fact that he is more than willing and seemingly happy to manipulate his mostly young audience through blatantly misrepresenting statistics and lying about a number of massive points in his response is fucking psychopathic and it blows my mind that he still has such a large following.

  15. Another way of explaining what dream video was about: The mods are wrong, they are stupid, my third point is that I am absolutely right and my friend I hired who is a professor who got a masters degree in statistics and graduated from Harvard but I’m not going to tell you his name because I am definitely not lying despite all the mistakes I’ve made in the first 10 minutes of the video. Next, wait did I forget to mention that the mods are young? Also they are dumb. Haha insert 10 jokes -. Did I forget to mention that the mods are dumb? Hahaha. Also here’s an explanation but I’m putting it in the description in case any one of you nerds want to read it. Also I did not cheat and they are biased by bye. Also sorry I’m not sorry for wasting 24 minutes saying nothing

  16. 2:50 that's not how odds work Destiny. CS masters student here with focus on machine learning, which is a lot of statistics. What you describe is an independent random experiemnt with 2 outcomes. Therefore your example is correct for that specific scenario with the coin. This doesnt apply to a speed run though, bc the PDF isnt binomial for drops and cant be really measured. This is why you can repeat a random experiment to determine the deviation (or variance) from the mean. Now if the PDF allows large deviation and isnt formed like a delta function, its very likely that Dream didnt cheat.

    Not a Dream shill, i dont even know who he is lol

  17. What is this bonferonni equation theyre talking about? Why overcomplicate things? The results were taken in consecutive runs so there is no need for correcting for bias or any of that, just plug the numbers into a binomial calculator.

  18. The paper still came to the conclusion that the odds of ANY speedrunner getting that "luck" over a year worth of speedrun attempts, is 1 in 10 million.

    Dreams is lying with the evidence right in front of our faces, lol.

  19. I have very very little statistical experience but I read through a majority of the report put out by Dream's "expert" and it just reeked of ignorance and bias to me. This Drama is getting riper and riper, his entire career is about to be on the line, not just his speedrunning career lol.

  20. My buddy who has a PhD in Minecraft speed running who graduated from Harvard said that Dream's statistics guy with a PhD who graduated from Harvard is statistically suspicious.

  21. "I hired a PhD to prove I'm innocent"
    Okay, can you tell us their name?
    "No. People will attack them. They wish to stay anonymous."
    Normal people on the internet aren't 11 year old dream stans. They won't go after someone for objectively defending you, especially if they prove you innocent with solid reasoning. But I feel your concerns. Can you tell me about the organisation they're a part of?
    "It's called Photoexcitation"
    Yeah, and?
    "That's all I got"
    Okay, Dream. I've looked at their website and learned that the domain has been in the current owner's hands for only a few months. Nothing on the website indicates any sort of credentials, any affiliations with Harvard or any other academic institution, or any evidence of any real work or research done by Photoexcitation themselves. So, is your whole reasoning behind this supposed to be "take my word for it"?

    Now, despite this, I don't think the mod team and Geosquare have cited any experts by name either.

    Also, what does Dream think of r/statistics and the verified PhD user that debunked your "Harvard statistician's" paper? When can we expect a response video to that? Remember, r/statistics is mostly neutral here. If someone on the sub found something that refuted the PhD's argument, they would have posted it and it would have blown up. No such signs. What does Dream think of that, I suppose?

  22. For all dumb-asses there that the report was done in bad faith. You need to understand that anonymity is a thing and it is important. For those questioning the website… AGAIN anonymity… Why would you even disclose anything about your whereabouts if you wanted to be anonymous? Also I only keep seeing these trolls pointing out the "Professor with the PhD"… Care to explain the fabric.api part of this vid when it clearly shows that he did nothing wrong? You might say that Dream edited… But what about the one in Geo's vid? It was clear as day that there we're no Mods loaded… At this point people who question this response already hated Dream even before all this cheating shit happened… And now that you "feel" like you actually have something against him, you milk it to the last second… Seriously the world does not need anymore toxicity… TBH there's no winning with these Mf's… I seriously hope Dream takes this to court… I'd love to see these mods lose their shit and panic…

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